Environment: Uncertainty about climate change impact on Nile

Egyptian Gazette

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One scenario set out by climatologists is that global warming in Egypt could speed up the River Nile evaporation process and lead to a decline in fresh water supplies, exacerbating the country's acute shortage of water for drinking, irrigation and hydro-electric generation.

Such a scenario could also have serious socio-economic consequences, one of which could be that Egypt might not be able to feed its 76 million people. However, experts offer conflicting projections and remain uncertain whether climate change will have such a negative impact on the Nile. Specialists say Egypt is already facing massive water management challenges due to demographic pressures and rising demand for water and electricity, but it is not clear how climate change will affect future Nile flows, and the key vulnerabilities have yet to be assessed.

Nahla Abou el-Fotouh of the Strategic Unit at the National Water Research Centre in Cairo said scientific studies had shown conflicting climate change scenarios for the future availability of Nile water as a result of global warming and changes in the earth's hydrological cycle. Some experts say that there will be water increase with more rainfall from the Ethiopian plateau, and some say there will be a decrease because of water evaporation. “Some experts say that there will be water increase with more rainfall from the Ethiopian plateau, and some say there will be a decrease because of water evaporation. Until now, no specific research has been developed to determine exactly the impact of climate change on Nile water availability. All [studies] that have been published so far are only predictions,” Abou el-Fotouh said.

A 2004 report by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said a rise in temperature of just one degree centigrade would lead to large evaporation losses and significantly reduce Nile flows, assuming a 4 per cent increase in evaporation per degree centigrade rise in temperature. According to Mohamed el-Raey, a professor of environmental studies at Alexandria University, a large number of studies foresee up to a 70 per cent decline in Nile water availability, while other studies project an increase in Nile water levels by 25 per cent over current yearly levels due to changing rainfall patterns.

The River Nile supplies 95 per cent of Egypt's total water needs for irrigation, and industrial and economic activities. Most of the population is concentrated on the narrow T-shaped strip along the Nile and the delta coast. The delta makes up only 2.5 per cent of Egypt's land mass but is home to over a third of the country's population. The country is, therefore, extremely vulnerable to any adverse climate change impacts on water availability in the coastal zones and the Nile.

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